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"I will be positioned in this seat by 2027," Sir Keir Starmer declared, noting that if the interview was successful, he might welcome the interviewer into Downing Street for a follow-up chat in 2026.

There is never truly break for those in the top job. Just an hour before we sat down, the PM had been in calls with Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky and trying to understand what on earth had happened in Venezuela, where his big friend, US President Donald Trump, had recently launched a strike against and detained its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

When our lengthy talk, which was far more extended than usual, had concluded, Maduro had been formally accused in New York.

A Refresh for the New Year

But as the new year begins, Sir Keir appears to have had a degree of a refresh. Maybe even just a little downtime with his family at Chequers, the prime minister's official country residence.

That certainly appeared to have put him in a more positive mood than at the saggy end of 2025, a terrible annus horribilis for him.

Yet, are he and his allies deluding themselves if they think his standing are about to improve?

Internal Doubts

The uncomfortable reality for the prime minister is that numerous of his fellow MPs believe he's not very good at his job. A faction of them would rather take a risk and oust him this year.

However Starmer was having none of it during our conversation on Saturday morning.

Multiple times he insisted he'd be "assessed at the next election", arguing no one would remove his term from him – despite the fact that the most effective strategy of halting Nigel Farage and Reform UK getting to No 10 might be for Labour to replace its leader.

"This is the struggle of our times and I intend to be at the forefront," he declared.

Upcoming Local Votes

The issue for the prime minister is that he will be judged long before then – in a major set of elections in May across the UK. He tried to protest, maybe too much, that they are about who runs local authorities, and who runs the governments in Holyrood or Cardiff – and not a verdict on Westminster.

Accurate – up to a point. But although he may be reluctant to acknowledge it, No 10 will be judged by those elections too.

This did not stop Sir Keir implying that there were no scenario under which he would walk away, even if a his MPs ran against him for the job, if those elections be disastrous for Labour.

Predicting a Turnaround

He sought to explain his unpopularity by saying the electorate was naturally impatient for things to change. He tried to persuade me, and the nation, that the coming months would be a change.

The economy would strengthen notwithstanding rising unemployment, he claimed, when policies the administration put in place during their initial turbulent year began to bear fruit.

• He committed to shut asylum hotels before the current deadline of 2029, although he wouldn't set a new date on that.
• He added too, with the qualification that it was not a foregone conclusion, that a peace agreement in Ukraine felt a greater possibility now than at any time since Russia's comprehensive invasion.
• He revealed for the first time that Western partners were now discussing how to integrate US and European forces to provide security for Ukraine – to guard a potential peace.

His core argument is that in 2026 the country will "reach a turning point".

A Consistent Script

The PM may have spoken with greater vigour than observed from him for a some time – less tense, maybe, with a longer slot to talk.

But despite encountering pressure from various quarters for a bolder approach, with much more political vision, more vigour, more speed and more urgency, his arguments were familiar ones.

Given that he is in such significant political trouble, should he consider a change of tack?

No administration, and especially not one that has been struggling in the polls for many months, gets everything its as desired.

Sir Keir's challenges are not only because governing is difficult, but because he and his team have made mistakes, even in the recent past.

Regrets and Risks

The prime minister admitted that he regretted saying he was "delighted" to welcome back the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK following an backlash when statements he'd previously made – such as calls for Zionists and police to be killed – resurfaced.

Starmer attributed it to "procedures" for not realising what the activist had said before – a fancier way of saying it wasn't his responsibility.

And he is courting evident political risks as the year unfolds. His alliance with the US president takes on a new jeopardy after Trump's military action on Venezuela.

Having interviewed Sir Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who opposed the war in Iraq, over his career, the notion he would be comfortable with such action seems far-fetched.

International Law and Brexit

He stated he was a "longtime proponent of international law" but we "just haven't got the complete details at the moment".

Some demanded criticise the action before we spoke. And the government is expected to face increased demands to give an definitive view in Parliament in the coming days.

There has also always been growing tension in the Labour ranks to reverse or renegotiate some of the outcomes of Brexit.

Sir Keir disputes he's doing that, but his new specific plan to integrate further with the single market – the huge economic European market – will probably trigger howls that he is reneging on his pledge never to try to overturn the choices that stemmed from Brexit.

A move to integrate into more of the single market will delight many on his backbenches, but it is prime ammunition for Reform and the Conservatives to